Fourteen Dead, 427 Wounded: Washington's Attrition Bill Becomes Public

Buried in the military's accounting is the number that will shape the war's Washington politics: 14 US service members killed and 427 wounded since February 28, with 13 added this week alone — ten Army, three Navy. For a campaign sold as standoff coercion, that ledger is a political fact of the first order, and it explains the tempo of presidential reassurance: wars of choice must show "fruits" before the ledger becomes the story. Tehran reads the same arithmetic; its Gulf strikes are calibrated to raise the American cost without triggering the response that would end the regime. Both capitals are now betting the other's tolerance breaks first.

Assessment: American attrition tolerance is the Gulf's problem too: a Washington that suddenly needs an exit accepts terms — on the strait, on tolls, on Iran's regional position — that the Gulf lives with long after the carriers leave. The tell to watch is congressional: the first hearing that leads with the 427 number rather than the strait marks the moment the clock starts. Gulf capitals should have their endgame demands drafted before that hearing, not after.