Trump Says the Talks Are Deep, Baghaei Says There Are None, and Both Men Are on the Record
A fourth night without American strikes on Iran, and two governments describing the same silence in incompatible terms. Only the Omani channel is acknowledged by both.
CENTCOM’s last strike release covers the 13th consecutive night, completed 23 July at 21:00 ET; there has been no release since. Speaking to Axios on Monday 27 July, President Trump said “very deep talks” were under way and that “if they don’t work out, we will go back to very strong military action,” per Bloomberg’s write-up. CNN quoted him the same day saying “We’re talking right now” and “They wanted to talk,” attributing the halt to Tehran’s request and to mediators reporting progress. Iran International’s live blog records him describing “very friendly negotiations” while also saying Tehran could not be bribed and “you got to beat them.” Fox News Digital carried him saying the US was “winning big time.”
Hours earlier, at a televised briefing in Tehran, foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei said: “We have no negotiations with the United States at present.” Per CNN he added that Iran “will never allow the United States to determine the timing of war and peace,” that Tehran holds Washington “responsible for the military aggression against Iran,” and that “what exists at present cannot be called a ceasefire.” CNBC reports Baghaei’s position is that Iran’s only formal channel runs through Oman and concerns Hormuz alone, and that Tehran denied media accounts it had agreed to a ten-day ceasefire. Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi held calls Monday with counterparts in Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Kuwait and Egypt, following two days of Iran–Oman deputy-level talks in Tehran on the strait.
Assessment: The two accounts are reconcilable and probably both true. Iran’s doctrine, stated by Araghchi in March, is that “exchange of messages via mediators does not mean negotiation with the United States” — which lets Tehran sit in an Omani room and deny negotiating. Trump’s incentive runs the other way: a pause he did not choose is worse politically than a pause he brokered. Watch the second explanation. CNN reported, on anonymous sources, that General Dan Caine raised the US munitions stockpile at a White House meeting on 24 July, and CNBC says Trump brushed the concern aside. A stockpile ceiling would explain four quiet nights without any diplomacy at all.