Fayyadh promised the PMF law within two weeks, and the two weeks end tomorrow

Falih al-Fayyadh, chairman of the Popular Mobilisation Forces, told the state-run Iraqi News Agency on Thursday 20 August that Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi was expected to submit the PMF law to parliament “soon, following the completion of certain amendments.” He was specific about timing: “The [new] PMF law covering service, retirement, and organisational structure will be submitted within the next two weeks.” He also framed the political question in institutional language, saying “the process of [political] disengagement from the PMF, must proceed according to well-studied plans and a safe transition that guarantees the stability of the institution.” Two weeks from 20 August is Thursday 3 September. Michael Knights of the Washington Institute told The National that the proposed law would not produce meaningful change inside the PMF but would instead lock in the status quo and make future reform less likely. The Congressional Research Service put PMF strength at roughly 238,000 personnel with a 2024 budget of about $3.4 billion.

The law is not a side file. Legislation providing rights for PMF members appears in the condition list that Long War Journal attributes to Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada, which means the bill Fayyadh is promising is also, for at least one faction, part of the asking price for its weapons. The government pushing both is still not fully formed. Parliament passed a vote of confidence in Zaidi’s cabinet on 14 May and approved 14 of 23 ministers; defence and interior were not among them, and 167 votes are required under the constitution. FDD reported in May that Zaidi intended to submit the remaining nine posts after Eid al-Adha at the end of May. The Files could not confirm any subsequent vote filling them. Crisis Group notes that Sadiqoon, the political wing of the US-designated Asaib Ahl al-Haq and the third-largest Shia party in parliament, received no ministry in May.

Assessment: Watch the parliamentary agenda rather than the rhetoric: a bill tabled on Thursday and a bill quietly held are two different governments. The sequencing matters more than the text. If the PMF law passes before 30 September, the state has paid part of the factions' price without receiving the weapons; if it stalls, factions gain a documented grievance. Either outcome is usable by them, which is why Fayyadh set the clock himself. And hold the structural fact in view when officials describe a legal, constitutional process: on the available record, the ministries that would execute disarmament, interior and defence, have no confirmed ministers.