Houthi forces reach Perim Island, completing their hold on the Bab al-Mandeb approaches

Houthi fighters took the Red Sea port town of Mokha on Thursday 10 September, roughly 50 miles from Bab al-Mandeb, and reached Perim Island — Mayun, which divides the strait into two shipping lanes — on Friday after government forces withdrew, along with Dhubab city in western Taiz province. The group had already completed its control of Al-Hudaydah governorate after entering Hays and Al-Khawkhah. None of this is on the record. CNN cited two Yemeni government sources; Middle East Monitor, via Anadolu, a government military source. The strongest confirmation available is in NPR’s AP-sourced account, where a senior military official of the internationally recognised government and a Houthi official separately confirmed the Mayun capture, both anonymously because they were not authorised to speak. Two adversaries agreeing is what passes for verification this week. Pro-government forces, meanwhile, advanced in northern Al-Jawf toward Al-Hazm, with fighting continuing in Marib, Al-Bayda and Al-Dhale.

The causal chain matters more than the map. Bloomberg’s 10 September explainer sets it out: Iran has imposed costs on Washington by threatening Hormuz shipping, the Houthis have attacked vessels near Bab al-Mandeb periodically since late 2023, and the group escalated in July after Saudi Arabia shifted more of its oil exports to the Red Sea route. Riyadh’s workaround created the target set. A Houthi broadcaster said Saudi Arabia struck Mokha’s airport — a single partisan source, with no Saudi confirmation and no reported damage or deaths. The EU External Action Service called on the group to “end all attacks inside and outside Yemen, including attacks against commercial shipping in the Red Sea”. And MS NOW reported, with pickup by CNBC and Euronews, that Trump rejected a request from Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman for US strikes on Houthi positions as they approached Mokha on Thursday. Riyadh and the White House have not commented.

Assessment: The Washington line is the one to watch and the one to hold at arm’s length: a single outlet, an unconfirmed account of a private refusal, denied by nobody — which is not the same as true. It also happens to suit several parties at once, including a Saudi leadership that needs an explanation for why it is now absorbing strikes rather than answering them. Read this alongside the Petroline shutdown rather than separately. Within seventy-two hours the kingdom lost the use of its Hormuz bypass and watched the Red Sea end of that same corridor pass into hostile hands. The question for Monday’s Oman talks is what Riyadh has left to trade.