Twelve days from the coalition’s exit, Baghdad has a withdrawal timetable but no disarmament mechanism

On 12 August, after Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi met CENTCOM commander Gen. Brad Cooper, his office said via X that 30 September is the “fixed and final” date for ending the Global Coalition’s military mission and completing the departure of its forces, and that “October 1 will mark a new day in the trajectory of the Iraqi state,” Al Jazeera reported. A US official separately told the network Washington expects to complete the pullout by that date — a single unnamed source. The physical drawdown is further along than the politics. Military Times reported on 20 January that US forces had completed their withdrawal from Ain al-Asad in Anbar, with Army Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Abdul Amir Rashid Yarallah overseeing the transfer according to the Defence Ministry; CENTCOM did not comment. Between 250 and 350 advisers had remained there past the original end-2025 target. The residual presence since has been in Kurdistan, at Erbil and Harir.

The second deadline has no comparable paper trail. The National reported on 23 August that Zaidi “is under pressure from the US to disarm the militias by September 30,” and the Council on Foreign Relations' conflict tracker, updated 29 July, frames the date the same way, with US and Israeli strikes on those factions continuing. As of late August there was no published decommissioning body, decree or timetable — only the date. Baghdad’s own argument runs the other way: the Foreign Policy Research Institute noted on 6 April that the state has folded militia activity into sanctioned self-defence, and that then-prime minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani had argued foreign withdrawal by end-September would make dismantling pro-Iran groups easier, not harder. On the legislative track, PMF chairman Falah al-Fayyadh told the state news agency INA on 20 August that a law covering “service, retirement, and organisational structure” would go to parliament “within the next two weeks.” That window closed around 6 September. Whether the bill was tabled is unverified.

Assessment: On 1 October the two outcomes will look identical: the last troops gone, the militias intact. They diverge by November, when it becomes clear whether disarmament was deferred or abandoned. Watch sequencing, not rhetoric. Michael Knights, quoted by The National, argued the PMF bill would lock in the status quo rather than change it, and recalled that Washington threatened severe economic consequences when the law last neared passage — which is precisely why passing it after the coalition leaves is cheaper for Baghdad than passing it before. Two things to distrust: the Patriot removal near Erbil airport is reported by Amwaj, not confirmed by CENTCOM; and the 4-versus-42 ISIS attack count came from a prime minister arguing for withdrawal. We could establish no datable Iraqi development for 16–18 September.