The tanker data behind the dispute over whether Hormuz is closed at all

Al Jazeera’s Stephen Quillen documented the gap on 3 September: Washington says the strait is open with dozens of ships passing daily, and Trump claimed last month the US was in “total control” of the waterway and is helping around 30 ships cross each day, while ship-tracking data suggests the number is far lower. The commercial tracker Windward AI — a private maritime intelligence firm, not a government or wire source — logged roughly 11.1 million barrels of crude leaving the Gulf over its 20–22 September sample. Within that total, ship-to-ship transfers accounted for 6.03 million barrels, or 54 per cent, down 21.83 per cent, while non-STS volumes of 5.09 million barrels, largely out of Oman, were up 148.29 per cent. Windward assessed shipments rising gradually through the week while STS volumes leaving the Gulf of Oman levelled off. On 22 September it also placed a 334-metre dark tanker alongside Yanbu’s crude terminal, with two more dark tankers anchored adjacent.

Prices moved on Araghchi’s offer, but not far. CBS reported Brent at about $103 at midday Friday, down roughly 2.5 per cent from Thursday. Trading Economics recorded Brent closing at $104.37, down 2.09 per cent on the day, up 20.05 per cent on the month and up 50.78 per cent year on year, noting the benchmark pared losses to around $106 as investors stayed cautious on the prospects for a US–Iran agreement; its WTI series showed $92.44, down about 7.4 per cent on the week. The sources disagree by several dollars, and the spread between the sub-$98 print NBC noted before Trump’s UN speech and Friday’s $106 is the point. The US Energy Information Administration’s September Short-Term Energy Outlook forecasts Brent averaging around $90 a barrel in the second half of 2026, but assumes export constraints persist through year-end, keeping regional crude production below pre-conflict averages until the second quarter of 2027.

Assessment: Read the EIA against the State Department and the two do not sit together. Washington’s diplomats describe an open strait; Washington’s forecasters budget for constrained exports into 2027. Only one of those is a market-facing document with a reputation to lose. The reroute is the more durable story: ship-to-ship volumes falling while Omani loadings nearly two-and-a-half times, which is what adaptation looks like and what makes a reopening worth progressively less to Tehran as leverage. Windward is a vendor selling insight, so treat its percentages as directional. The honest measure of any seven-day plan will be tonnage in week two, not the communiqué.