Baghdad buys off an airspace threat with a waiver it says Washington granted

On 29 September, a Kata’ib Hezbollah security official named as Hajj Abu Mujahid al-Assaf warned Baghdad over its compliance with the American air embargo on Iran, saying that if the blockade continued past 1 October “our proud people will take a clear stance that may extend to closing the entry points of the countries participating in the blockade of the faithful Iranian people.” That quote comes from Tehran Times, an Iranian state outlet; Rudaw reports the same threat in near-identical terms, adding that the measures could include closing border crossings with participating countries. The pressure was not only factional. On 28 September, demonstrators gathered outside Najaf’s Al-Najaf Al-Ashraf International Airport demanding it reopen to flights from Iran, according to an Al Jazeera photo caption.

On 2 October, Al Jazeera reported that Iraq had granted Iranian airlines 40 daily flights into Najaf following a US exemption, with Mahan Air — long under American sanctions — excluded from the arrangement. The waiver itself is asserted by Baghdad, which says Washington approved its request; in what we have been able to verify, the claim is single-sourced to Al Jazeera and we have found no corresponding US Treasury or State Department confirmation. Separately, Rudaw reports that Secretary of State Marco Rubio accused Kata’ib Hezbollah of firing into Saudi Arabia and damaging the kingdom’s East-West oil pipeline during the current regional conflict, a charge we could not trace to the underlying remarks.

Assessment: This is the clearest available picture of how Ali al-Zaidi actually governs: accept the American demand in principle, then negotiate a carve-out wide enough to satisfy both the faction and the Najaf street, and let the exclusion of one airline stand in for enforcement. The measurable part of the deal is Mahan Air’s exclusion; the rest is capacity. Note how neatly it fits the lead — Kata’ib Hezbollah suspended operations except against aircraft in Iraqi airspace in the same week that aircraft became the currency of the bargain. Until a US agency confirms the exemption in its own name, treat the waiver as Baghdad’s account of Washington’s position, not as Washington’s position.