Trump trades Russian diesel for Iranian leverage, and the Brent numbers stop agreeing
Treasury is easing restrictions on Russian fuel for six months as US retail diesel sits at $6.23 a gallon. The tonnages exist so far only in a Truth Social post.
Trump announced on Truth Social that Russia had agreed to supply 300,000 tonnes of diesel immediately, with further tranches in November and beyond; CNBC reported him putting the total at more than four million tonnes to the global market, with another three million depending on the state of Russia’s refineries. Haaretz reported the US temporarily lifted sanctions on Russian fuel after the announcement; Fortune reported the Treasury Department easing restrictions on Russian diesel shipments for six months, with US diesel at $6.23 a gallon. “To be honest, we have massive amounts of oil coming into our country, and it’s diesel which is what we want,” Trump told reporters outside the White House on Friday, per Al Jazeera. Zelenskyy condemned the deal, warning that easing sanctions without a Russian commitment to de-escalate will only prolong the war; Fortune renders his characterisation as “a weak decision.”
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News Sunday, per Iran International, that Iran is the “biggest loser” from the arrangement, arguing Tehran’s attempt to create choke points in Hormuz and in diesel prices had failed. Analysts told Al Jazeera the deal will likely do little to ease the global energy crisis, with European buyers potentially refusing Russian cargoes outright. The cleanest official figure available is the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook of 6 October, which forecasts Brent spot averaging $105 a barrel in the fourth quarter — $14 higher than the September outlook — falling to an average of $84 next year, citing attacks on Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and extreme tightness in diesel markets. Its model inputs were finalised on 1 October, before both Riyadh strikes and before the diesel announcement.
Assessment: Two things here are not what they appear. First, nothing has moved: the tonnages exist as an announcement, with no fixtures, no cargo tracking and no published licence text. Announced volumes and delivered volumes are different commodities, and the gap between them is where this story will be settled. Second, the price data has come apart. Brent futures closed at $104.72 on 9 October per Investing.com, while FRED’s EIA-sourced Europe spot series printed $125.44 on 6 October and $135.51 on 2 October — a spread of $20 to $35 for overlapping dates. Either a physical-versus-paper dislocation consistent with a closed strait, or an artefact. The next FRED release is 15 October. Do not average them.