October is the worst month on record for attacks near Hormuz, and freight rates are still pulling ships in

Reuters, reporting from Oslo on 23 October, found October to be the worst month on record for attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and adjacent waterways, using data from a Washington-based think tank that has tracked maritime security incidents globally since 2017. Affected vessels account for roughly 3.5% of a global VLCC fleet exceeding 900 ships — and daily freight rates above $1 million have drawn owners back into loading inside the Gulf despite the risk. Gulf News reported on Sunday that close to 500 vessels face delay or disruption. On 22 October a tanker outbound through the strait was struck by an unidentified projectile about seven nautical miles north-east of Limah, Oman, with no casualties and no environmental impact, according to UK Maritime Trade Operations. The Joint Maritime Information Centre’s advisory covering 1 March to 25 October rates the Hormuz threat “severe,” with deliberate hostile action “highly likely,” and the Arabian Gulf, Gulf of Aden and southern Red Sea at “substantial.”

The traffic numbers move in the other direction from the freight rates. Lloyd’s List Intelligence’s Strait of Hormuz Brief of 22 October logs 104 total transits against 126 in the comparison period, with eastbound movements at 51 against 68 and tanker and gas carrier transits at 81 against 105. At least 104 vessels with no Iranian ownership, trading exposure or sanctions link transited between 5 and 11 October — a 17% week-on-week fall, but still 31% above the August weekly average. The week labels in the published briefs do not align cleanly, so the series should be read as direction rather than as a clean time line. Pricing has tracked the risk: TradingEconomics put Brent at $115.80 a barrel on 25 October, up 18.37% on the month and 78.43% on the year, after passing $116 on Friday. The EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook of 6 October, forecast completed on 1 October, projected Brent averaging $105 in the fourth quarter — already $14 above its previous estimate, and already overshot.

The weekend also produced an IRGC Navy claim that two supertankers struck naval mines on a southern route Tehran considers unauthorised, with engine-room fires forcing crews off. The Files could not locate a wire, UKMTO, Ambrey or Lloyd’s List confirmation, nor vessel names, flags or operators; the claim reached us through a news-scan aggregator. It is a claim, not an event. It also lands against Trump’s accusation of 21 October that Iran was fabricating ship attacks to push up prices — an accusation that is itself interested, since Washington has reason to minimise strikes it cannot prevent.

Assessment: The useful contradiction here is that insurance-grade fear and commercial behaviour have come apart. A million dollars a day is enough to buy a shipowner’s risk appetite outright, which is why transits are falling by a sixth rather than collapsing, and why the war’s economic bite is showing up in price rather than in volume. That has a political consequence: as long as cargo moves, the pressure on Washington to settle is a price pressure, measured against a midterm calendar, not a supply emergency. Watch the EIA’s next outlook. A forecast that is wrong by $11 within three weeks tells you the modellers have no assumption about the strait they can defend.