Baghdad enters Jurf al-Sakhar for the first time in a decade, with the PMF holding the pen

The sequence began with a leak. ISW’s Iran Update of 10 November records that unspecified Iraqi government sources passed a “top-secret” Interior Ministry intelligence report to US-funded regional media on 9 November implicating Kataib Hezbollah in oil smuggling. By Wednesday The National reported that Zaidi had ordered an investigation into petroleum-product smuggling at Jurf al-Sakhar after the Federal Intelligence and Investigations Agency issued its report, describing the pipeline sites as under the control and protection of “an armed faction”, with a separate inquiry opened into crude smuggling from Kirkuk to Iran and Afghanistan. State news agency INA said the documents included satellite images showing crude and derivatives being drawn from a tapped pipeline. On Thursday Babil Governor Ali Turki, affiliated with Asaib Ahl al-Haq, resigned after publicly denying that any smuggling took place.

The committee was formed the same Thursday, and where it was lodged is the story. Asharq Al-Awsat reports Zaidi placed it under the Popular Mobilization Forces, with members drawn from his own office, intelligence and anti-corruption bodies, the Oil Ministry, security agencies, forensic authorities and the Energy Police; the order was signed by Lt. Gen. Abdul Amir al-Shammari of the commander-in-chief’s office and tasks the body with “investigating information concerning the smuggling of oil products within the Jurf al-Nasr area”. Its chair is the director general of discipline and security at the Popular Mobilization Commission. The order followed a three-hour meeting between Zaidi, Badr leader Hadi al-Amiri, PMF chairman Falih al-Fayyadh and chief of staff Abu Fadak, at which, per Shafaq News, al-Amiri and al-Fayyadh proposed giving the factions time to reorganise and resume dialogue over weapons.

On Friday a large military escort massed at the entrance to Jurf al-Sakhar and waited for reinforcements before the committee met armed-faction leaders at a security headquarters inside and began fieldwork, according to 964media, which obtained footage. ISW called it a “highly circumscribed investigation” and noted that Kataib Hezbollah has not allowed federal authorities into the area in over a decade. Accounts of the day diverge: Asharq Al-Awsat reports political mediation briefly halted the advance and that Sabereen News, close to the armed factions, broadcast a Kataib Hezbollah commander addressing Interior Ministry officers, while Security Media Cell chief Saad Maan denied any faction representation on the committee. On Saturday, military spokesman Sabah al-Numan said Zaidi had referred all those accused to the judiciary and dismissed nine officials from the security and oil sectors. The statement did not name Kataib Hezbollah.

Assessment: Read the chairmanship, not the convoy. A state that must negotiate three hours with Hadi al-Amiri and Abu Fadak before it can inspect its own pipeline, then hand the inquiry to the institution the suspects sit inside, has demonstrated the limit of its writ as clearly as it has demonstrated reach. Nine dismissed officials are the confirmed yield; the attribution to Kataib Hezbollah is in the leaked report and the foreign coverage, never in an Iraqi government statement. Treat with care the 964media account, single-sourced and anonymous, that the PMF took the chair only after the first committee was refused entry, and the parallel claim that Qais al-Khazali forced the Babil governor out. Both are plausible and neither is established. Watch whether any of the nine is actually charged.