Netanyahu Runs on the War He Won't End — as a Poll Hands the Opposition a Majority
The October 27 vote and the Iran front are now inseparable. Netanyahu bets an active war reinforces "only I can keep you safe"; a Channel 13 poll gives the opposition 61 seats without a single Arab party.
The coalition set the election for October 27 — the last legal date, and the first national vote since October 2023. Likud is polling around 22 to 27 seats, down from 32 in 2022; Gadi Eisenkot's new Yashar party is projected near 21, just behind Likud. A Channel 13 poll gave the opposition 61 of 120 seats — the first survey in over a month showing an opposition majority without Palestinian-majority parties. Netanyahu campaigns on wartime security while still on trial for corruption, his "protector" image dented by three years of instability; Middle East Eye reports allies "exploring voting restrictions."
Assessment: The war and the ballot have merged — Netanyahu is wagering that an open Iran front reinforces the security case, while the opposition attacks from the security right, not the left: Eisenkot is a former IDF chief. That the challenge comes from the right, and that a non-Arab-dependent majority is now even pollable, is the shift. Caveats hold: the 61 seats are a single poll, not a trend, and the "voting restrictions" thread is sourced to an adversarial outlet, unconfirmed in the Israeli press.