The State Tells Nine Justices the Ruling Is “Known in Advance” and That Arrests Risk Civil War

The Knesset passed the coalition bill 58–54 on 14 July — formally the Security Service Law (Amendment No. 28 – Temporary Provision), 2026 — temporarily barring the arrest and prosecution of ultra-Orthodox men evading service. The Jerusalem Post notes the law suspends enforcement against qualifying yeshiva students until 30 November 2026 and grants no lawful exemption or deferment, which is the legal crux the petitioners press. The Court named a nine-justice panel, president Isaac Amit presiding, to sit on 28 July. In its written response, as reported by the Jerusalem Post, the state argued that arrests could reverse a gradual rise in enlistment and risk civil war — “Israel needs haredi recruits, not haredi detainees” — and, remarkably, that the outcome of the case is “known in advance.” Haaretz reported on 1 July, citing the attorney general’s submission, that 16 haredi draft evaders have been arrested this year, against an IDF warning that the number of evaders is heading toward roughly 90,000.

The hearing lands inside a campaign. The coalition set the election for 27 October, the last possible date, meaning a full term (Haaretz, 12 July). Ynet’s English analysis of about 21 July reported that Netanyahu, after advancing the “haredi deal,” reversed course once the electoral damage to Likud registered and has in recent days launched “uncharacteristic attacks” on the haredi parties. The polling is close and unstable: Kan on 5 July had Likud and Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar tied at 23; Maariv around 12 July had Yashar 23, Likud 22; i24NEWS/Direct Polls, fielded 9 July, had Likud 29 and Yashar 21, an outlier on Likud. The Jerusalem Post reported around 24 July that Eisenkot had widened his lead, that Likud hit its lowest polling since June 2025, and that Itamar Ben Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit rose one seat to eight, level with Shas and UTJ. A Jewish People Policy Institute survey reported by ToI on 16 July put 14% of voters undecided, most of them in the centre.

Assessment: The filing is the story, not the hearing. A government telling the High Court the result is settled in advance is either signalling contempt for the bench or preparing its supporters for a loss it can run on; both readings serve the same campaign. Note the arithmetic the coalition chose: the freeze expires 30 November, five weeks after polling day, so the exemption is a coalition asset through the election and someone else’s problem afterwards. Distrust both headline numbers. Ninety thousand is an IDF projection, not a count. Sixteen arrests measures the state’s appetite for enforcement, not the size of the evasion.