Likud members vote on a slate Netanyahu already half-owns, with the party polling below its size

Likud votes Monday 17 August for its slate ahead of the 27 October general election, with over 100,000 members eligible, per the Times of Israel. The Jerusalem Post’s arithmetic is the story: Netanyahu “will control 11 of the top 29 positions” on the list, after a Likud Central Committee vote last month granted him authority to determine eight slots within the first 30. The party holds 32 seats and is polling at an average of 23–24. On the eve of the vote Netanyahu told members, per the Post: “I trust you, Likud members, to choose your representatives correctly, according to your own judgment. I am not interfering in the national list, and I wish everyone success.” The primary was originally set for 4 August and postponed; Ynet reported the slate dispute unresolved a month out and raised the possibility of cancellation outright.

That possibility was closed by Likud’s own internal tribunal, which struck down Netanyahu’s attempt to scrap the primary in favour of an appointed committee, ruling there was “no room to open even the slightest door to canceling the primary” and that Likud “is not a one-man party and will lose its character if it becomes one” (i24NEWS). The tribunal’s head, former MK Michael Kleiner, was subsequently among Likud figures detained for questioning in a tax fraud probe, the Times of Israel’s Sam Sokol reported around 5 August; no outcome is known. Among the newcomers is Almog Cohen, the former Otzma Yehudit MK admitted after Netanyahu waived tenure requirements — “Almog, I am glad today to officially welcome you into the ranks of Likud,” the prime minister said — entering what ToI calls “a crowded field” against incumbents “many of whom are not expected to return.” Haaretz’s analysis line, 13 August: “Netanyahu’s Likud is no longer enabling the far right. It is the far right.”

The campaign product is already visible. Haaretz’s live file reports that Likud has cast New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani “alongside Iran, Hezbollah leaders in campaign ad” — a party purchase, not press commentary, though the ad itself, its platform and its release date have not been published in the coverage available. It arrives on top of weeks of Israeli press treatment Haaretz catalogued on 16 August under the headline “Hamas? Hezbollah? Israelis found a new villain,” reproducing Israeli headlines including “Mamdani goes after Israel, and New York starts paying the price” and “Mamdani’s public humiliation echoes across the United States.”

Assessment: The gap between 32 seats held and 23–24 polled is what makes a primary dangerous for an incumbent leader: fewer realistic slots means sitting MKs fight each other rather than the opposition, and the leader’s reserved slots become the only safe currency. Netanyahu’s “I am not interfering” is technically true of the open contest and irrelevant to the eleven places he already holds. Watch two things: whether Kleiner’s tribunal survives its head being under investigation, and whether Almog Cohen’s admission is the template — Otzma Yehudit talent absorbed into Likud rather than competing with it. The Mamdani ad is a tell about audience, not about New York.