CENTCOM declares Hormuz clear of Iranian mines as third-party transit counts stay near zero

In a video message posted to CENTCOM’s accounts early Friday 28 August, Adm. Brad Cooper said “internationally recognized transit routes in the Strait are free of Iranian sea mines, thanks to the incredible work of the US military,” describing clearance work at the Traffic Separation Scheme using Navy divers, SEALs and aircraft from four services. “The circumstances were challenging and dangerous, to say the least, but we got the job done,” he said, adding: “International shipping lanes are open and momentum is building.” Every figure attached to the announcement comes from the US military and from no one else: roughly 1,500 commercial vessels given “coordinated protection” over recent months carrying some 750 million barrels of crude; more than 20 warships involved; about 75 vessels turned back for evading the blockade and three disabled; and zero Iranian crude exported since the blockade resumed on 14 July.

CBS News, citing a Bloomberg report of 26 August, said some US allies do not accept that the strait has been fully de-mined, and noted that Iran’s standing threat to shipping has kept traffic minimal regardless of mines — a point Cooper himself conceded when he said vessels still want direct US assistance to transit. The IRGC, carried on Al Jazeera’s live files of 28 and 29 August, says it retains “decisive control” of the waterway and accuses US officials of lying about its status to move energy prices. Its spokesman, quoted by the Washington Times, set the terms plainly: “If the United States stops obstructing and returns to the memorandum, we can reopen the Strait of Hormuz within the framework of the agreement… If the United States does not accept our conditions, the Strait of Hormuz will not be opened under any circumstances.”

The commercial data neither side controls is thin and inconsistent, but it points one way. Kpler figures published by Al Jazeera on 20 August counted 236 transits of all cargo types between 1 and 19 August, against a pre-war baseline the same piece puts at roughly 130 ships a day. Arab News reported five vessels transiting on Thursday 27 August — two medium-range tankers and one very large gas carrier — below the ten-day average. The tracker straits.live, an aggregator rather than a primary source, cites IMF PortWatch data of three transits on 23 August against an 85-a-day pre-crisis baseline, and describes the strait as “effectively” closed on Day 182. Lloyd’s List Intelligence, meanwhile, published two different transit counts for the same week of 27 July–2 August, most likely reflecting different vessel-class filters. The series are not measuring the same thing.

Assessment: Mine clearance and open commerce are separable problems, and CENTCOM has announced the first while implying the second. Insurers and charterers price threat, not ordnance; a lane can be swept and still be empty. Note the incentives on both sides of the claim: at the six-month mark Cooper needs a deliverable, and the IRGC needs to look like the party that decides who passes, because that is the only asset it brings to the Omani track. Distrust single tiles. The 44-to-75 progression in vessels turned back is a US number at both ends, and the two independent baselines — 130 a day and 85 a day — cannot both be right.