Eisenkot leads the seat counts, and neither bloc has sixty-one

The Jerusalem Post’s poll, fielded on 19–20 August, found Eisenkot “leaps ahead as Likud support falters,” projecting 26 Knesset seats for his list and a record 14-point lead over Netanyahu on suitability for prime minister. The methodology deserves printing alongside the number: 3,916 people were invited, 501 answered — a 13 percent response rate — described as a representative sample of Israeli adults, Jews and Arabs. The poll was taken shortly before the announced merger of Hadash-Ta’al and Balad; Hadash-Ta’al rose one seat to six, and with Ra’am’s five the Arab parties take 11. Britannica’s election survey describes three Arab parties running as a single Joint List with Ra’am independent, which does not match the Post’s account of the merger. That discrepancy is unresolved and matters for any bloc arithmetic.

The structural finding is steadier than any single poll. The Center for Israel Education’s aggregation of late-June and July surveys concluded that “Netanyahu’s traditional coalition is losing,” with the Likud/ultra-Orthodox/far-right bloc taking only 49 to 52 seats against the 61 required, while “Netanyahu remains personally competitive.” Reuters, the CIE notes, read the accumulated July polling on 29 July as predicting a clear Netanyahu defeat while cautioning that the fragmented opposition still lacked an assured route to power. Arab Center Washington, a partisan think tank, made the same point on 15 July: neither Netanyahu’s coalition nor Eisenkot’s opposition has reached 61 in any mainstream poll. The Zionist opposition leads on seats but not always to a majority that avoids depending on Arab parties.

The mechanics now run ahead of the polling. Likud held its list primary on 17 August. Haaretz’s 1 September magazine piece is headlined “Knesset Slates Mess: These Are the Big Questions Still Baffling Netanyahu, Eisenkot Blocs” — the composition question that turns 26 seats into a coalition or a stalemate. The 27 October date is the latest on which the election could legally be held. After it, the president consults the parties and hands a Knesset member the job of assembling a coalition; negotiations can run 30 to 45 days or longer, so the vote may not produce a government until December, with the outgoing government in office until its successor is sworn in.

Assessment: Two things are being conflated in the Israeli coverage of these numbers. A lead over Likud is not a majority, and Eisenkot’s rise has so far redistributed seats within the opposition rather than breaking the 61 barrier for it. The draft-exemption question is the fault line that decides whether the religious parties are available to anyone at all. Treat the 26-seat figure with the caution its own footnote demands: 501 respondents, 13 percent response, taken before an Arab-list merger that the pollster itself flags as unmodelled. The useful number this week is 49 to 52 — the ceiling on the incumbent bloc — and the useful date is December, not October.