Riyadh loses its Red Sea outlet and declines, for now, to hit back

Houthi forces took the port city of Mokha in Taiz province, about 50 miles from Bab al-Mandeb, on Thursday 10 September, according to AP and NPR citing Houthi and Yemeni officials; the city had been held by the internationally recognised government and under sustained attack since early August. On Friday they seized Mayyun, also known as Perim, inside the strait, along with the Hanish archipelago, Zuqar Island and wide areas of Dhubab district overlooking the waterway, after shelling forced government forces to retreat, per Asharq Al-Awsat and AP. Al Jazeera assessed by the weekend that the takeover of Yemen’s entire Red Sea coastline was complete, with Houthi forces 20 kilometres from the African coast. The International Organisation for Migration said on Sunday that more than 2,000 people had fled Yemen to Djibouti in the previous 24 hours. A Houthi broadcaster said Saudi Arabia struck Mokha airport; there was no Saudi confirmation and no reported damage.

Two days earlier, the Saudi foreign ministry condemned the targeting of the East–West Crude Oil Pipeline in the Riyadh and Madinah regions by several drones launched from Iraq, citing injuries and some damage. Its statement, carried by the Saudi Press Agency on 12 September, contains the operative line: following a request from the Prime Minister of Iraq to give Baghdad the opportunity to prevent attacks from its territory, “the Kingdom has opted not to respond at this stage,” while reserving the right to take all necessary measures. The pipeline is the Kingdom’s main Hormuz bypass, running to Yanbu on the Red Sea and moving up to 5 million barrels a day, a figure published by FDD’s Long War Journal, an advocacy organisation with a declared position on Iran. The shutdown was confirmed by the Saudi energy ministry per NBC and by satellite imagery. No actor has been named by Riyadh.

Brent settled above $100 for the first time since May, according to the Long War Journal, which recorded an intraday move to roughly $110 on 11 September before easing to $105. TradingEconomics, tracking contracts-for-difference rather than exchange settlements, put Brent at $104.61 on 11 September, down 2.81 percent on the day but up 17.57 percent on the month and 56.16 percent on the year. October WTI closed the week at $101.26, up $10.04 or 11.01 percent, per Oilprice.com. The restraint in the price is the part worth reading: in the same week, the EIA raised its 2027 US crude production forecast to 14.3 million barrels a day and the IEA sharply cut its global demand outlook, forecasting a 2.5 million barrel-a-day contraction in 2026. NBC News reported, citing a person familiar with the matter, that Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is urging President Trump to take military action against the Houthis.

Assessment: Within 72 hours Saudi Arabia lost the use of the pipeline built precisely so that Hormuz could be bypassed, and watched the alternative exit at the other end of the Red Sea pass into hostile hands. The response was a statement deferring to Baghdad’s promise to police Maysan and, if the single anonymous source behind the NBC and MS NOW reporting is right, a private appeal to Washington. That is what a government does when it has calculated it cannot win the next round of escalation on its own. Distrust the neat causal story on price: oil is at $105 rather than $150 because demand is falling faster than supply is being removed, which also means the coercive value of each further strike is decaying.