An Emirati source confirms the pre-October 7 warning story to Times of Israel

Times of Israel diplomatic reporter Lazar Berman filed at 12:05 am on 19 September with two things at once. The first was a formal Emirati non-denial: the UAE does not “discuss such details at the level of national leaders.” The second was heavier — that an Emirati source familiar with the conversation confirmed the Haaretz report to The Times of Israel. The underlying story, published 8 September by Haaretz correspondents Shlomi Eldar and Ruth Yuval and drawn from their book, holds that in a 45-minute call at the end of September 2023, roughly ten days before 7 October, UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed warned Netanyahu that Yahya Sinwar was threatening an “earthquake” and that Hamas was preparing a major move. Netanyahu, the report says, responded calmly, said he believed Hamas intended to act in the West Bank, briefed neither the Shin Bet chief, the Mossad chief nor the Chief of Staff, and did not raise it in a 1 October 2023 discussion on Gaza and Hamas. MBZ did not respond to a request for comment.

The government position has not moved. The Prime Minister’s Office, quoted by the Jerusalem Post and i24NEWS, says “Netanyahu did not speak with the president of the United Arab Emirates during the period in question and did not receive any warning from him,” and calls the report “an absolute lie.” On 9 September Netanyahu sent a pre-litigation warning letter ahead of a libel suit against Haaretz and against Eldar and Yuval personally. The evidentiary position is now two outlets, each resting on its own sourcing — Haaretz on three senior foreign sources, ToI on a single Emirati source it describes as familiar with the call — and no government confirming anything on the record. Israeli outlets are not yet agreed on the book’s title: Israel Hayom renders it “Hostages: 843 Days of Abandonment,” the Times of Israel “Kidnapped: 843 Days of…”.

Assessment: The useful distinction here is between corroboration and confirmation. A second newsroom finding its own Emirati source raises the cost of the PMO’s flat denial considerably, because the denial is categorical — no call at all — and categorical denials break on a single verified phone record. But nothing has been confirmed by any government, and Abu Dhabi’s line is engineered to be neither: it declines to discuss leader-level detail while letting an unnamed source do the work. That is a state keeping a card, not playing one. Watch the libel suit rather than the headlines; discovery is where a denial of this shape either survives or does not. Two further Times of Israel items on an internal Shin Bet warning and a former Palestinian Authority minister’s mediation claim remain unverified by this desk and are not reported here.