Zaidi’s disarmament clock reportedly runs to June 2027, long past the coalition’s exit

Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi met US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on the margins of the UN General Assembly in New York on 21 September. The Jerusalem Post, citing the New York Times, reported that Zaidi “pledged to disarm his country’s Iran-backed militias by June 2027,” and that he has floated a sequencing device: a 90-day period in which the militias halt attacks, after which they surrender arms. The Files has not seen the New York Times original, and treats the June 2027 date as reported at second hand. The firmer document is a statement issued by Zaidi’s office on Tuesday 22 September, in which the prime minister “reiterated the government’s determination to fulfill its sovereign responsibilities and move forward with measures to ensure that all arms remain under state authority, in accordance with constitutional and legal principles.” No date appears in that text.

The mechanism Zaidi has described is not confiscation. The Foundation for Defense of Democracies, in a 23 September analysis, quotes him saying militia members “will join the Popular Mobilization Forces as individuals and integrate into them,” and that because the PMF is a government institution its weapons are “state-controlled arms.” FDD — which advocates US pressure on the PMF — calls this circular. The same piece reports, citing Shafaq News, that Zaidi intends to reintroduce legislation formalising and strengthening the PMF, with some contested provisions stripped out after Washington objected; comparable bills were introduced twice in 2025 under Mohammed Shia al-Sudani and withdrawn. The factions are not aligned. The National reported on 19 September that Asaib Ahl al-Haq, Kataib Imam Ali and Moqtada al-Sadr’s Saraya al-Salam say their weapons are already under state authority, while Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba say they will not disarm until foreign troops leave.

That condition is about to be tested. Qasim al-Araji, Iraq’s national security adviser, told Rudaw in early September: “On September 30, coalition forces will completely withdraw from Iraq,” adding that the phased removal of personnel and equipment had begun and would cover all systems remaining in Erbil. US forces completed their withdrawal from Ain al-Asad in Anbar in January; what remains is in the Kurdistan Region. Kataib Sayyid al-Shuhada — designated a Specially Designated Global Terrorist by Washington in 2023, with a $10 million Rewards for Justice offer on its leader since April — has set out its own list of conditions, including the withdrawal, PMF members' rights legislation, and stronger air defences under sole Iraqi command. Staff Lt. Gen. Bakhtiyar Mohammed, secretary-general of the Erbil Peshmerga ministry, told Rudaw on 19 August: “Our current assets lack the capability to intercept advanced drones.”

Assessment: Read the two dates together. Whatever Zaidi told Rubio, the operative deadline is 30 September, and it belongs to the militias, not to Baghdad: Kataib Hezbollah and Nujaba tied disarmament to the departure of foreign troops, and that condition expires next week, which is precisely when a new set of conditions will be required. Integration “as individuals” into a body those same factions dominate is not disarmament; it is payroll. The tell to watch is the PMF law, not the timeline. And if the Maliki wires hold up, the announcement on 30 September will come from a man who does not hold the prime ministership — which would say more about who controls this file than any pledge made in New York. Distrust the June 2027 figure until the New York Times original surfaces, and distrust the Jerusalem Post’s claim of more than 1,000 drone and missile attacks on the Kurdistan Region since February: it is single-outlet, partisan, and carries no methodology.