RSF keeps striking El Obeid from the air while the diplomatic track stands still

North Kordofan state authorities said an RSF drone strike on Friday 25 September killed two civilians and wounded 20 in El Obeid, hitting a displacement shelter and civilian infrastructure. Sudan Tribune’s Arabic edition, citing local sources, listed the targets as an IDP shelter beside the police hospital, a fuel station, a bus carrying civilians and a house in the Arafat neighbourhood in the city’s north; the state government and state security committee condemned the attack. The casualty figures are state-authority figures and have not been independently verified. It was the second aerial bombardment of El Obeid within a week: on 20 September the army said it repelled a broad RSF drone assault on civilian and military facilities including the army command in the city. On 18 September the RSF claimed — without corroboration — that it had defeated an SAF attack on RSF-held areas west of El Obeid.

The strikes are not confined to Kordofan. On Sunday 27 September the RSF hit the Um Aleila fuel depot near Wad Madani in Al Jazirah state, causing explosions and fires at the reserve facility, according to security sources and witnesses cited by Sudan Tribune; no claim of responsibility was reported. The Council on Foreign Relations conflict tracker frames the stakes: the army has recaptured Khartoum, the RSF holds much of Darfur, and El Obeid’s fall would open a direct corridor to the capital. In July the UN human rights office warned of an impending humanitarian catastrophe for half a million people trapped in the city, and said ten consecutive days of drone strikes had killed at least 50 civilians across El Obeid and North Kordofan — figures now three months old.

Assessment: The tempo is the tell. Reuters reported in August that the RSF stepped up drone and land attacks nationwide following losses on several fronts; deep strikes on fuel infrastructure substitute for ground gains it has not made. Against that, Asharq reported on 21 September — single-sourced to anonymous Sudanese military sources — that both armies were moving large reinforcements toward the Sodari and Al-Mazroub axes. That is the best forward-looking detail in the cycle and it needs a second source before anyone builds on it. Set it beside the diplomacy: Boulos announced a mutually acceptable peace document in February with a $1.5bn funding goal. Nearly eight months on there is no truce, and the shelling calendar has not noticed the General Assembly.