Three tracking firms described the same strait in opposite terms on the same day

Windward’s daily intelligence note of 29 September recorded 55 transits between 16 and 23 September, roughly 94% below a pre-war baseline of about 910 a week, while reporting export volumes back near pre-war levels through what it calls a “tanker shuttle.” Lloyd’s List Intelligence, in its 9 September Hormuz brief, counted at least 346 non-Iranian-linked ships transiting during August — 191 westbound, 155 eastbound — with more than 190 such vessels entering the Gulf, the first month since March in which inbound movements exceeded outbound. The Washington Times reported on 29 September, citing maritime tracking firms, that commercial traffic rose dramatically in September and was inching toward pre-war levels. Asharq Al-Awsat, citing preliminary shipping data in mid-September, counted four commodity vessels on a single Thursday, against a ten-day average near sixteen. Different transit classes, different baselines, one waterway.

The figure that survives the definitional mess concerns barrels rather than hulls. Trading Economics reported on Wednesday that crude held below $90 after a sharp fall in the previous session, with analysts putting the ten-day average of Middle East crude exports at 17.5 million barrels a day, or 98% of pre-war levels; Saudi Arabia has resumed exports through its East-West pipeline at about half capacity, alongside what the note describes as a steady flow of oil via covert shipping through the strait. Its own Brent page, dated 29 September, had the benchmark at $105.31, up 16.38% on the month and 59.50% on the year; Fortune had Brent at $104.46 at 11 a.m. ET on 28 September. Separately, Lloyd’s List reported Iran says it is close to agreeing a new shipping corridor with Oman, running through Iranian and Omani waters under Iranian management. Muscat has not confirmed it.

Assessment: The reconciliation matters more than any one series: cargo is moving while ship movements are not, via shuttles, transfers and unlogged voyages. That converts a blockade into a tax on logistics rather than a cut in supply — and it quietly erodes the leverage behind the seven-day plan. If exports are running at 98% of pre-war, Washington’s urgency to see the strait formally reopened falls, and Tehran’s central chip depreciates while it waits on a reply through Doha. Read the proposed Omani corridor “under Iranian management” as the hedge: not reopening, but institutionalising a toll. Distrust any headline number here that arrives without its counting rule attached.