Baghdad declares the coalition gone, and moves the disarmament deadline nine months

Prime Minister Ali Faleh al-Zaidi congratulated Iraqis on “this great day, 1st October 2026” and on “the attainment of full and comprehensive Iraqi sovereignty,” according to the full statement text published by Iraq Business News. Chief Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell said in a statement that “the orderly departure of Coalition forces and equipment from Erbil Air Base marks the successful conclusion of the military mission that defeated ISIS in Iraq,” calling it a 12-year campaign. The multinational task force against regional ISIS activity relocates its headquarters to Jordan, Overt Defense reported. The date had been locked for weeks: al-Zaidi told reporters on 12 August, after meeting CENTCOM commander General Brad Cooper, that 30 September was “fixed and final,” and on roughly 3 September government spokesman Haider al-Aboudi said Baghdad had rejected a proposal to retain any coalition forces past the deadline, per the state agency INA.

The second deadline did not hold. Al-Zaidi’s published text describes 1 October as “a serious beginning” on weapons outside state control, under “a clear roadmap and an agreed timetable that will not extend beyond 30th June 2027” — the same endpoint carried by Xinhua. On 12 August, The National had reported the framing as militia groups “also required to disarm by September 30,” with Iraq from 1 October “free from any foreign military presence and no weapons outside the control of the state.” Rudaw notes the weapons-restriction deadline “was initially set at September 30 but was recently pushed.” Al-Zaidi also announced immediate procurement of a comprehensive national air defence system and reaffirmed that Iraqi territory and airspace may not be used as a launchpad or transit corridor against neighbouring states.

Two things the ceremony did not settle. Al Jazeera reported on 7 September that the withdrawal includes removal of the US air defence systems stationed in Erbil — the layer used to intercept Iranian ballistic missiles and drones during the US-Israel war on Iran. Nobody has said on the record where those systems went or what replaces them; the procurement announcement is a plan, not a capability. And the Pentagon statement names Erbil Air Base specifically. No US official has stated a residual figure for Iraq, and this desk found no independent confirmation — satellite, congressional notification or named official — that the number is zero.

Assessment: Read the two deadlines together and the shape of the bargain appears. The foreign-troop deadline was the one Baghdad could meet by doing nothing, and it met it on the day. The domestic-weapons deadline was the one that required confronting armed groups inside the governing coalition, and it was quietly re-dated into the second half of 2027, past the point where anyone will remember it was promised for 2026. Al-Zaidi credited Sistani’s 2014 collective-duty fatwa rather than the Iraqi army for the sovereignty he declared — a tell about whose legitimacy he is borrowing. Treat “withdrawal complete” as announced by both governments and plausible; treat “zero US personnel” as unverified. Watch whether any faction ever acknowledges being bound by 30 June 2027.