The worst month on record for Hormuz shipping attacks, by the only count anyone can check

Reuters, from Oslo on 23 October, reported that October has been the worst month on record for attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and nearby waterways, citing data compiled by the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, which has tracked maritime security incidents worldwide since 2017. “October has seen the highest number of ship attacks on record,” Noam Raydan, a senior fellow at the institute, told the agency. Vessels attacked account for roughly 3.5 percent of the global VLCC fleet, which exceeds 900 ships. Daily freight rates above $1 million are nonetheless drawing owners back into loading inside the Gulf. Raydan linked the tempo of attacks to pressure on energy markets ahead of November’s US midterms; Reuters notes it previously reported Tehran adopting such tactics, citing two senior Iranian officials who were not named.

The second auditable series cuts against the headline. Lloyd’s List Intelligence, in a Strait of Hormuz brief published 22 October covering 5–11 October, counted 104 transits of non-Iranian-linked vessels against 126 the previous week — 51 eastbound against 68, 53 westbound against 58, and 81 tanker and gas carrier transits against 105. That is down 17 percent week on week but still 31 percent above the August weekly average. The claims ledger is far less solid. On 22 October the IRGC said it had struck four tankers conducting ship-to-ship transfers and that three more had hit mines; on 20 October it said two “violating oil tankers were set ablaze and halted due to the explosion of mines planted by the brave sailors of the IRGC Navy”; on 18 October it claimed two tankers carrying about two million barrels each. In most of these the IRGC names no vessel, and owners and flag states have largely stopped confirming. Trump has accused Iran of “making up fake hits” to lift prices before the midterms — a presidential assertion, not a finding.

The price moved regardless. Brent settled Friday at $116.72, its highest close since 29 April, with both Brent and WTI gaining more than $3 a barrel on the day; Brent ended the week up 6.2 percent, a third consecutive weekly gain, against 2 percent for WTI. Reuters attributes the move to Houthi attacks on energy infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and an oil spill off the United Arab Emirates, though the specific facilities and the size of the spill remain unverified here; Washington approved an emergency exchange of up to 400,000 barrels, with the counterparty unspecified. Overnight into Saturday, an AFP journalist in Riyadh heard two explosions; the Saudi-led coalition, through spokesman Turki al-Maliki on X, said it intercepted a Houthi ballistic missile aimed at the capital and destroyed a drone over the Eastern Province. The IRGC said two more supertankers had struck mines near the strait.

Assessment: Two numbers in this file can be checked and the rest cannot. The Washington Institute tally and the Lloyd’s List transit count are both internally consistent and they point in opposite directions: attacks at a nine-year high, traffic a third above the August floor. That combination describes a strait being taxed, not closed — million-dollar day rates are buying the risk. Treat the IRGC’s unnamed-vessel claims and Trump’s fabrication charge as the same category of evidence: assertions by interested parties with midterm clocks running. Note also that IranWire’s “new record” framing is wrong on its face; Brent’s all-time high is $147.50, set in July 2008.