Jordan bombs southern Syria over church attack, and Damascus says nobody asked it

Jordan’s air force struck what it described as militant hideouts in southern Syria on Monday 26 October, after Amman determined that the gunmen behind Friday’s attack on a church in Karak province — which killed at least nine people and wounded 34 — were linked to “terrorist groups” operating across the border. Derek Davison’s Foreign Exchanges roundup recorded at least seven killed and three wounded in Daraa and Suwayda provinces. By Tuesday the Times of Israel’s liveblog index reported Syria had raised the toll to eight and that the main border crossing between the two countries had been closed; the entry does not make clear which government closed it, and does not name the crossing. Jordanian authorities also arrested three people on Monday in connection with the Karak attack. The Kurdish-aligned Hawar News Agency still carried the strikes as a running item on its 27 October budget.

The coordination question was disputed on the record within hours. Jordanian officials said the operation was conducted with Damascus; the Syrian government said it was not. A statement carried by the state agency SANA said “no prior coordination with the Syrian side was carried out concerning the military operation,” adding that authorities had opened an investigation and were discussing the strikes with Amman while stressing the need for joint security coordination in border areas. Foreign Exchanges had already flagged the contradiction on Monday, noting Damascus had not confirmed the Jordanian account and had “launched an investigation.” At the time of the strikes, the Times of Israel reported, there was no immediate comment from Syrian authorities and no clarity on whether Amman had cleared the targets in advance.

Assessment: Two governments contradicting each other in public about a joint operation is unusual, and the ambiguity is useful to both. Amman gets a demonstrated right of hot pursuit into a neighbour it does not fully trust; Damascus gets to tell a domestic audience that its airspace was violated rather than lent out. Note which provinces were hit: Daraa and Suwayda are precisely where Damascus’s writ is contested and where a third state — Israel — already operates at will. The casualty figures are both official and both unverified, and the jump from seven to eight came from the side with an interest in the higher number. Watch whether the crossing reopens quietly.