A nuclear image, a final rally and a polling blackout that leaves the result genuinely open

Netanyahu posted on Sunday an AI-generated image of a nuclear explosion over Tel Aviv, warning of a “second Holocaust” if he lost and telling Israelis concerned for their families' physical survival to vote with “trembling hands.” Haaretz timestamped the post at 17:59 on 25 October, roughly 48 hours before polls opened; rivals called him “hysterical.” The same day he was photographed at Palmachim air base in front of an Arrow interceptor battery, telling Israel’s enemies: “You will suffer disproportionate blows, stronger than you can imagine.” Haaretz reported that White House officials were concerned the nuclear image could cause Iranian officials to miscalculate, and that the administration had expressed surprise at his recent remarks. On Monday he prayed at the Western Wall. Trump, who endorsed him in the penultimate week, denied on 26 October that a second endorsement followed pressure from the prime minister, saying he “never spoke to him about it.”

Gadi Eisenkot closed Yashar’s campaign in Tel Aviv on Sunday warning that Netanyahu would do whatever it takes to remain in power and that political change should not be treated as guaranteed. He pledged a state commission of inquiry into 7 October and asked voters to give his list a decisive rather than narrow lead over Likud. “Netanyahu must go home,” he said, per Al Jazeera’s video desk. AFP reported he pledged to “heal” Israeli society while Netanyahu’s camp cast him as soft on Iran. The Jerusalem Post’s average of the final four surveys — Channel 12, Channel 13, Channel 14 and Maariv, published 25 October before Friday night’s legal blackout took hold — gave the opposition 54 seats to the Netanyahu bloc’s 49.5, with Eisenkot just over two seats ahead of Likud. AIJAC puts the Netanyahu bloc at 49–55, with only Channel 14 projecting 61.

The arithmetic turns on parties nobody can measure now. The joint Reservists and Economic Party list averaged 3.10 percent against a 3.25 percent threshold — 0.15 points short — and crossed in two of the four polls, taking four seats each time. AIJAC estimates the threshold at roughly 165,000–170,000 votes. Ofer Winter said Sunday he would not withdraw Amcha Yisrael despite poor polling and pressure from Netanyahu, and his conscription-law demand collides with Haredi red lines whether or not he crosses. Haaretz counts 7,331,981 registered voters, 543,177 more than in 2022, across 12,018 polling stations including 55 in prisons and five for Israelis displaced after 7 October. There is no postal voting. Turnout in 2022 was 70.63 percent; Israel Policy Forum projects up to 80 percent among Jewish voters.

Assessment: The blackout is doing more work than the polls. Since Friday night no legal numbers have existed, which means every figure circulating today is either stale or illegitimate — and a 4.5-seat gap between blocs neither of which reaches 61 is, in practical terms, no gap at all. Watch the sub-threshold lists rather than the headline race: a list polling 0.15 points short either delivers four seats to a bloc or burns 160,000 votes, and that single coin-flip outweighs anything the leaders said this week. Note also who the outlier is. Channel 14, alone in projecting 61 for Netanyahu, is the network to which he gave his denial interview.