Eight seats short, Netanyahu keeps the Iran file while the blocs argue over Ra’am

The committee completed the double-envelope count — begun at 1 a.m. Thursday in the Knesset parking garage, per Israel Hayom — and released final figures for the 26th Knesset: 5,564,764 valid votes and 25,072 invalid ballots, with the Reservists party and the Economic Party below threshold, according to the CEC figures carried by Arutz Sheva. The bloc arithmetic is confirmed across outlets: 53 for Netanyahu’s bloc, 48 for the Jewish-led opposition, 19 for the Arab parties, against a majority of 61. Israel Hayom notes official certification still follows final integrity checks. Netanyahu told i24NEWS’s liveblog that the right-wing bloc holds a “decisive majority”; Gadi Eisenkot, whose Yashar list took 21 seats, said on election night that “the coalition of failure has lost the people’s trust.” Both men have vowed to form the next government.

The paths out are all at briefing stage. The Jerusalem Post reported on 29 October that “sources close to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu are promoting a plan to form a national unity government with Gadi Eisenkot, despite the latter’s pledge not to serve under Netanyahu” — one variant explicitly without the haredi parties — while noting that on election night figures close to Netanyahu were briefing reporters on a different, alternative arrangement at the same time. That is anonymous, single-outlet and originates with Likud. On the other side, Democratic Party chairman Yair Golan met Ra’am chairman Mansour Abbas on Thursday, logged by the Jerusalem Post’s live blog; ANI, citing the Times of Israel, reports Golan is the only figure in the Jewish-led anti-Netanyahu bloc publicly backing a coalition including Ra’am. Without that, 48 plus 19 never becomes 67.

Which leaves the incumbency. Reuters' Lili Bayer reported from Jerusalem on 28 October that Netanyahu will face more constraints as caretaker prime minister but that experts say the government could retain significant powers, including the authority to wage war on Iran, with limited parliamentary oversight. Axios’s Barak Ravid argued the same day that remaining caretaker may be Netanyahu’s best option, leaving him near-full control of national security until new elections. AP, carried by Haaretz on 29 October and sourced to anonymous diplomats, reported that US officials have told several Middle Eastern states to prepare for possible renewed military action against Iran after the 3 November midterms, with no final decision taken by President Trump and allies warned to expect Iranian retaliation against energy infrastructure. Eisenkot publicly urged the military to resist post-election political pressure; the defence minister denounced him for it on Wednesday, per Asharq Al-Awsat and The New Arab.

Assessment: Read the unity-government leak as bargaining, not policy: two incompatible plans briefed to the same reporters on the same night is a party testing which threat moves Eisenkot. The firmer structure is that nobody can form a government quickly and the man who cannot form one keeps the war powers anyway — an incentive to let talks run. Distrust the Iran timeline most: it rests on unnamed diplomats via AP, and Gulf News’s “week-long strikes” characterisation traces to no primary source. A warning to allies is a real diplomatic act; it is not a decision to strike.