A reported $3.5bn exit from Egyptian treasuries lands six weeks before the IMF board

In a piece dated around 3 November, the emerging-markets publication bne IntelliNews reported that foreign investors withdrew roughly $3.5bn from Egyptian treasury bills during October, framing it as a “second hot-money wave” against a reserve stock of about $57bn. The same piece puts net international reserves at a record $56.3bn at end-July and $57.35bn at end-September, and the October exit at roughly 6% of reserves. It also notes that a substantial share of those reserves reflects Gulf support held as central bank deposits. None of this has been corroborated: the $3.5bn figure did not appear in anything retrieved from Reuters, Bloomberg or the Central Bank of Egypt, and the CBE’s October reserves print — the number that would show whether the drawdown happened and who absorbed it — has not been published in any source available to this desk.

The timetable is what makes the figure matter. On Thursday 29 October the IMF said a mission was in Egypt that week working toward a staff-level agreement, with a draft to reach the Executive Board by mid-December; The National, carrying Reuters, reported the talks centred on tight monetary policy and fiscal consolidation. “We have a mission in the field right now discussing the reviews, the programme,” the Fund’s spokeswoman told a news conference, with the report naming Julie Kozack as the speaker. The Fund’s own staff report confirms the arrangement was proposed for extension to 15 December 2026, a 48-month total duration, with March 2026 indicative targets raised to quantitative performance criteria. Roughly $7.2bn of the $8bn facility had been disbursed after the seventh review cleared in summer. Kozack’s stated priorities — divestment, the state ownership policy, levelling the field between public and private companies — are the military-economy question in Fund language.

The other leg of the external account is still convalescent. Suez Canal revenue for FY2025/26 came in at $4.67bn, up 23% year on year, according to Suez Canal Authority chairman Osama Rabie via Ahram Online; August 2026 brought 1,358 vessels and $567.1m, with traffic up 27%. Set that against 2023, when Rabie himself cited more than 26,000 vessels and $10.2bn. The authority projects about $8bn for FY2026/27 — a run rate near $667m a month — and potentially $10bn by FY2027/28, figures announced by the body that collects the revenue and not independently audited. CEIC’s series puts August at $570.6m against $505.5m in July, a $3.5m gap on Rabie’s own number. Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said in early October that Red Sea turmoil had cut revenue and that it remains far below peak. The October print has not landed.

Assessment: The reserve record and the outflow are the same phenomenon, not opposing ones: carry-trade money inflates the headline stock and leaves on the same instruments it arrived on. The number to watch is not the $3.5bn, which rests on one specialist outlet, but the CBE’s October figure. Reserves holding above $57bn after an exit that size would mean the gap is being funded by someone with a longer horizon than a T-bill holder — which points to the Gulf deposits, and to the second story below. Egyptian front pages on 3 November led on a “historic” Banque du Caire offering, but that comes from a press-review aggregator with no EGX filing, stake size or pricing behind it. A divestment benchmark clearing four weeks before a board date would be worth knowing; it is not yet reported.