Reserves hit a record by $151.8 million as Egypt runs down the clock on its IMF programme

The Central Bank of Egypt published provisional net international reserves of $57,499.8 million for the end of October, dated 5 November on its own site and picked up by Amwal Al Ghad as a record. The arithmetic deserves attention before the word is used: the rise from $57,348 million at end-September is $151.8 million, or 0.26 percent. The series is sitting on a high plateau rather than climbing. The year-on-year comparison carries the actual story — Rio Times, citing CBE data, reported reserves up $7.8 billion in the twelve months to end-September. Egypt Independent attributed the strength to inflows from citizens abroad, but that framing rests on net foreign assets of the banking system, a different line from net international reserves at the central bank, and it is the outlet’s reading rather than the CBE’s.

The relevant deadline is 15 December, when the Extended Fund Facility expires. The IMF staff report for the fifth and sixth reviews records staff proposing extension to that date, taking the arrangement to 48 months, with the eighth and final review expected on or after 15 September 2026. The completion date has now slipped from September to November to December. The Fund’s board approved $2.27 billion in combined disbursements on 26 February under the $8 billion EFF and the $1.3 billion Resilience and Sustainability Facility. EnterpriseAM reported the mission arrived in Cairo on 26 October with divestments, energy subsidies and tax on the table, and — citing three unnamed government sources a week earlier — that subsidies and a stalled free-zone tax were the drags. The same outlet noted the pound weakening past 55 to the dollar and foreign investors turning net sellers. The Monetary Policy Committee’s next scheduled meeting is 17 December, two days after the programme ends.

Assessment: A reserve stock that moves 0.26 percent in a month is a managed number, not a market outcome, and it is being managed into a review. The informative figures are elsewhere: a currency past 55, foreign holders selling, fuel prices frozen through December, and a conclusion date that has moved twice. None of that is failure — growth of 5.0 percent in Q3 FY25/26 is real — but it describes a government buying calm until the Fund signs off rather than one that no longer needs to. Note also what this desk did not check today: Gulf deposits. Whether new GCC money lands before 15 December is the variable that would make the reserve line move properly, and it is unexamined.