Herzog to name a candidate Sunday, and Eisenkot’s two positions cannot both survive the week

President Isaac Herzog said he will name a candidate to form the next government by Sunday 8 November, after the consultation round closed with 67 MKs endorsing Yashar leader Gadi Eisenkot and 46 endorsing Benjamin Netanyahu, Al Jazeera and the ABC reported on 6 November. Neither bloc won 61 seats on 27 October. JTA’s assessment is the one to keep: Eisenkot heads four Zionist parties united only by the goal of replacing Netanyahu, and his path after receiving the mandate “remains far from clear.” If he fails, the mandate can pass to another candidate, or Israel goes to a fourth round. On Friday Eisenkot called for an “emergency government” and, per the Jerusalem Post live file, said Israeli democracy faces an “existential threat.” Haaretz’s Michael Hauser Tov reported at 17:17 that he declined to rule out a minority government — immediately after Avigdor Liberman ruled one out.

The same 48 hours produced the move that will decide whether he needs one. Liberman, whose refusal to sit with Haredi parties has defined his politics for a decade, posted on X on 6 November: “On all other issues, it is permissible and desirable to be flexible and compromise and understand that if you try to catch many, you catch none. This includes the issue of the draft law.” Channel 12’s Amit Segal had reported the climbdown the previous evening. United Torah Judaism chairman Ya’akov Asher MK replied that “it is heartening to see the flexibility displayed by all political players regarding the issue of military conscription.” On the same day Eisenkot reaffirmed that every coalition partner must accept mandatory military or civilian service. Haaretz reported him warning that anyone who “tries to obstruct or derail the formation of a government” “will not be forgiven” — a rendering of the Hebrew that has not been independently verified.

Assessment: The endorsement count is a near-certainty, not a government. Eisenkot has publicly taken two positions that exclude each other: no partner without universal service, and no ruling out a minority cabinet. One breaks within days, and the tell will be whether Liberman’s flexibility is reciprocated or ignored. Note who moved first — Liberman, not the Haredim, abandoned the veto, which means the price of UTJ has already risen before talks begin. Discount the live-blog traffic around it: the Tibi pledge and the UTJ-to-opposition rumour are unattributed single-outlet items, claims about intentions rather than events.