Katz rules out any Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, and the ridge question stays open

On Sunday, Defence Minister Israel Katz said Israel will not withdraw from the zone it holds in southern Lebanon, and for the first time gave its geography. Per Haaretz’s rolling file, Katz described a belt running from the Mediterranean coast through the Beaufort Castle area to Mount Hermon, including the Ali Taher ridge, where he said the military will maintain control after killing Hezbollah operatives and destroying tunnels, to stop the group or anyone else re-establishing a presence. His line, carried by Haaretz, the Times of Israel liveblog and Arutz Sheva: “Anyone who approaches the Ali Taher ridge will be destroyed.” The formulation restates a policy Katz set out at a Rosh Hashanah toast at the Defence Ministry on 3 September, when he said Israel would not leave the security zone until Hezbollah is disarmed throughout Lebanon, calling the capture of Ali Taher “an important step in achieving this goal.”

The wording matters because Israeli outlets are not describing the same physical situation. Arutz Sheva’s write-up of the same remarks refers to “the withdrawal from the ridge,” saying the IDF has continued strikes in the Ali al-Taher area and nearby villages over two days to stop Hezbollah returning — while the same piece says the military “is currently deployed to enforce its control over the ridge.” Arutz Sheva is a settler-right outlet and the line may be a rendering artefact of the Hebrew rather than a scoop; The Files has not seen a second Hebrew source for it. What is established is the scale of what preceded this: the military said on 10 September it used 1,100 tons of explosives to destroy the Hezbollah complex beneath the ridge, on a directive Netanyahu and Katz announced jointly, with residents of northern Israel warned in advance that explosions were expected.

Assessment: “Will be destroyed” is the language of fire control, not of occupation, and the difference decides what any future negotiation is actually about. A garrison is a bargaining chip that can be traded for Hezbollah disarmament; a free-fire strip held from the Israeli side of the line is not, because there is nothing to hand over. That is the sense in which Katz’s mapping forecloses the US-brokered sequencing formula, under which the Lebanese army would take the ridge and Israel would leave only after weapons were collected. Treat the reported Iranian warning to Washington with care: the Critical Threats Project attributes it to unspecified regional sources, a different evidentiary class from the three briefed officials cited in a Reuters line The Files could only see truncated.