Egypt’s reserves cross $57 billion while its foreign currency holdings fall by $1.2 billion

The Central Bank of Egypt published provisional net international reserves for end-August on 7 September: $57.2145 billion, up from $56.2939 billion in July, a rise of about $920.6 million and the first time the figure has passed $57 billion. The decomposition, as carried by Daily News Egypt, Egypt Independent and others citing the CBE, tells a different story from the headline. Gold in reserves rose $1.919 billion to $19.058 billion; SDR holdings rose $160 million to $606 million; and foreign currency holdings fell $1.158 billion, to $37.553 billion from $38.711 billion. Gold now accounts for roughly a third of declared reserves. Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly met Governor Hassan Abdalla after the release to review economic indicators; no quotes from either man were carried in the reporting.

The monthly series shows the pace slowing even as the records accumulate. Reserves have risen from $51.4516 billion at end-December 2025 and $49.2507 billion in August 2025 — up 16.2% year-on-year — but the monthly increments have shrunk: $1.94 billion in June, $1.22 billion in July, $0.92 billion in August. Rio Times describes August as the 48th consecutive monthly rise; no other outlet reviewed makes that claim, and it should be checked against the CBE series before it is repeated. The IMF, completing its seventh EFF review on 30 July, put gross reserves at 119% of its Assessing Reserve Adequacy metric at end-June and projected headline inflation rising to 16.7% in the second half of 2026 on energy prices and depreciation, delaying convergence to the CBE’s target band by about a year.

Tarek Metwally, a banking analyst quoted by Egypt Independent, said the increase “reflects the continued improvement in foreign currency liquidity indicators and the Egyptian economy’s ability to meet its foreign currency needs.” He is an outside commentator and his remarks do not address the gold-versus-currency split. Separately, the IMF staff report covering the fifth and sixth reviews — Staff Country Reports Vol. 2026 Issue 069 — carries a title that includes requests for rephasing of access, extension of the arrangements, a waiver of nonobservance of a performance criterion and modification of performance criteria. The document confirms that at least one criterion was missed and waived; which one has not been reported.

Assessment: A gold-heavy reserve is a defensible choice and a poor liquidity buffer. Bullion is revalued monthly at market, so a strong gold price manufactures headline growth without a dollar entering the country; it also cannot be spent on wheat or debt service at the posted price in a squeeze. The number to watch is the $37.553 billion of actual foreign currency, which is falling, not the $57.2 billion that will be quoted in every ministerial statement this week. Read it against the deceleration — $1.94bn, $1.22bn, $0.92bn — and against the canal windfall in the story above, which should have been additive. The waived performance criterion in the Fund’s own staff report is the sentence nobody in Cairo has been asked about.