Eisenkot’s bloc leads on seats and still cannot reach 61 without the Arab parties
A Channel 12 poll gives Yashar’s camp 54 to Netanyahu’s 49, and three-quarters of Israelis back a state commission of inquiry — yet the incumbent has not answered a debate challenge.
The Channel 12 survey published on Monday evening, 5 October, and reported by Haaretz the following day, put the bloc around Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar at 54 seats, unchanged from the previous wave, and the Netanyahu bloc at 49. The opposition bloc remains short of the 61 needed and dependent on the Arab parties for a majority — a dependency the Jewish Chronicle’s poll tracker, updated 5 October, frames alongside “the potential disqualification of all the Arab parties.” Ofer Winter’s far-right list again failed to clear the 3.25 per cent threshold. A Kan poll published Sunday evening, 4 October, and cited by the Times of Israel, had Yashar on 23 and Likud on 21. A Jerusalem Post write-up carrying similar seat numbers and a Netanyahu 39 / Eisenkot 38 preferred-premier split appears to belong to a late-September Kan wave; we are not merging the two.
On Sunday 4 October, on the eve of the national memorial day, Eisenkot invited Netanyahu to a televised head-to-head debate. Yashar’s letter said: “In 23 days, Israel will hold its most fateful elections, standing at a critical crossroads regarding the security and future of the State of Israel.” Eisenkot said: “Anyone seeking to lead has a duty to provide full, direct, and honest answers to the voters. They deserve clear and complete answers, free from spin and lies,” accusing the prime minister of refusing both a commission of inquiry into the 7 October failures and the release of full transcripts. No response from Netanyahu was captured. i24NEWS notes that no direct head-to-head leaders' debate has been held in Israel since 1999. An INSS survey reported by Amos Harel in Haaretz on 20 September found 75 per cent support for a state commission of inquiry, including 52 per cent of coalition voters.
Assessment: The debate challenge is designed to lose gracefully. Refusal has been the Israeli norm for twenty-seven years, so Eisenkot forfeits nothing by asking and gains a week of coverage framing Netanyahu as the man who will not answer questions about 2023. The harder problem is arithmetic, not theatre: a 54-seat bloc that needs the Arab parties is not a government-in-waiting while their disqualification is live. Note also what the inquiry number does and does not show — majority support for investigating the failure has coexisted with Likud competitiveness for three years. Wanting accountability and voting for it are separate acts, and the campaign’s closing fortnight will test the gap.