Container traffic through Suez passes half of pre-Houthi levels for the first time

Niels Rasmussen, BIMCO’s chief shipping analyst, published the series on 14 October: “During the first two weeks of October, weekly container ship capacity transiting the Suez Canal averaged 753,000 teu, according to Clarksons Research, compared with 1,457,000 teu during the same period in 2023.” Against that is the scale of the hole it is climbing out of. From early February 2024 to mid-2026, Rasmussen wrote, transiting capacity “averaged 141,000 TEU per week, equal to on average 11% of the capacity recorded during the same weeks of 2023.” His conclusion: “Since the Houthi attacks began in the Red Sea, this is the first time that transits have exceeded 50% of pre-disruption levels.” Sea-Intelligence data cited in C.H. Robinson’s monthly update put 27% of September Asia–Europe container capacity, both directions, through the Red Sea and Suez, with the Asia-to-Europe leg lagging.

The carriers are moving ahead of the analysts. Simon Heaney, head of container research at Drewry, told The Loadstar on 12 October: “Drewry is not privy to carriers' internal risk assessments, but irrespective of our own reservations about the ongoing security risk, we cannot deny the evidence that lines are returning to Suez ahead of our projected timeline.” The Suez Canal Authority is marketing the return rather than claiming it. Marking the transit of the CMA CGM Pantheon on 13 October, SCA chairman Admiral Ossama Rabiee said the canal “holds a strategic significance for containerized trade due to the operational savings it achieves and its promotion of the concept of economies of scale.” Seatrade Maritime and Riviera both reported analyst expectations of a full container-line return by the first quarter of 2027 — a forecast, attributed to analysts, not to the Authority.

Assessment: Two cautions. Seatrade’s suggestion that lines have received private assurances on Red Sea passage carries no named source and no outlet standing behind it; until a carrier says so on the record it is trade-press speculation. And The Loadstar’s reporting of the same week runs the other way, describing shippers struggling with cargo insurance against a deteriorating security picture — carriers' risk appetite and shippers' insurance economics are separate problems and can diverge. The number nobody has published is revenue. Volume is back to roughly half of 2023 while the SCA’s transit discount scheme is still running, so Cairo’s receipts are not recovering on the same curve. The Clarksons series is weekly, which means the 50% line is testable again within days, and crossable back.