Egypt’s last IMF review opens as the Red Sea threat moves from shipping to Saudi energy

Bloomberg reported on 15 October that the IMF will begin talks on the final review of Egypt’s $8bn Extended Fund Facility after this month’s annual meetings, aiming to sign off by December. Jihad Azour, the Fund’s director for the Middle East and Central Asia, told the outlet at the gathering in Bangkok that once the review concludes, “we can discuss with the authorities what are their plans, what are their priorities, and if they want another program or not” — a formulation that commits the Fund to nothing. Cairo has pre-answered it: Madbouly said in an interview reported on 4 October that the economy can grow without a new programme, though The Files has seen that only through an aggregator and not in the original. The Fund’s own documents are less relaxed, describing Egypt’s capacity to repay as “adequate but subject to risks and contingent on full program implementation and the materialization of all projected financing.” Egypt is the Fund’s fifth-largest exposure in the General Resources Account.

The arithmetic is better than the framing usually allows. IMF tables put revenues at 9.3 percent of GDP in FY2024/25 and 9.9 percent in FY2025/26 against a programme projection of 8.6 percent — actual collection ran above target in both years. Debt service to the Fund peaks at 4.8 percent of goods-and-services exports and 5.8 percent of gross international reserves in FY2025/26 before declining. Suez Canal revenue reached $4.67bn in FY2025/26, up 23 percent year-on-year, according to the SCA chairman via Ahram Online, with CAPMAS figures showing $1.12bn in the first quarter of 2026 and $1.26bn in the second. Madbouly has said Red Sea turmoil cut canal income by more than $6bn a year and that receipts remain under half their peak. Planning Minister Ahmed Rostom told Arab News Egypt targets at least 5.4 percent growth in FY2026/27 after 5.1 percent last year; the Fund’s number for 2026 is 4.6 percent.

That recovery was priced on a calming Red Sea, and the past three weeks have run the other way. ACLED, the most rigorous source in this file, published analysis on 1 October finding that Houthi territorial gains around Bab al-Mandab and renewed confrontation with Saudi Arabia have raised risks to shipping, energy infrastructure and oil markets. Around 4 October the 73,976 dwt product tanker Chrystal Sky reported a series of explosions around the vessel, per Seatrade Maritime. On 14 October FreightWaves, bylined Stuart Chirls, reported that Saudi Arabia had confirmed Houthi missiles struck the headquarters of Saudi Aramco, alongside repeated attacks on Saudi airports and energy infrastructure, as 2027 container contract negotiations open. One causal claim circulating about the second-quarter canal rise — that it reflects tankers rerouted by a closure of the Strait of Hormuz — appears only in aggregator copy and is not relied on here.