Gantz quits eight days before the vote, and every poll still stops short of 61
Blue and White’s withdrawal on Monday night removed the last centrist remnant of the old Netanyahu-era coalition from the ballot. The seat arithmetic it left behind has not moved: Eisenkot leads, Netanyahu trails, and neither bloc gets to a majority without the Arab parties.
Benny Gantz announced at Kfar Maccabiah in Ramat Gan on the evening of 19 October that Blue and White would not contest the 27 October election, eight days before 7,331,981 eligible voters — about 71.1 percent of all Israelis, per Haaretz’s election liveblog — go to the polls for the 26th Knesset. The former IDF chief of staff, once Netanyahu’s designated alternate prime minister, said he “did not succeed in convincing enough of the people of our path,” and added, in remarks reported by JNS, “I always was, and forever will be, a soldier of Israel, before everything.” The Jerusalem Post reported that Gideon Sa’ar and Bezalel Smotrich responded by warning about wasted right-wing votes and urging small right-wing parties to do the same; opposition leaders called the withdrawal “responsible.”
The first poll taken after the withdrawal, published by Walla at 15:12 on 20 October, put Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar on 23 seats and Likud on 19, with the pro-Netanyahu bloc at 48 and the opposition leading but short of 61. The Jerusalem Post’s write-up added that Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad also gained. Haaretz reported two Monday-night surveys: Channel 13 at Eisenkot 51, Netanyahu 50; Channel 12 at Eisenkot 55, Netanyahu 51 — majorities for Netanyahu’s opponents only if the Arab parties are counted. A Times of Israel/Zman Yisrael poll on 16 October had Yashar 26, Likud 20. On 20 October, Times of Israel reported that Tzachi Hanegbi, a longtime Likud figure and Netanyahu’s national security adviser on 7 October 2023, said he would vote for Avigdor Liberman.
Assessment: The individual seat counts in this week’s polls swing three to six points between pollsters, which is a warning about the pollsters, not about the electorate. The finding that survives every house effect is structural: Yashar leads Likud, and the anti-Netanyahu column crosses 61 only by counting Arab parties that no prospective coalition has committed to seating. That is the same trap that produced the 2019–2021 deadlock, and Gantz’s exit does not spring it — it only clears a party that had become a rounding error. Watch whether the Netanyahu camp spends the final week arguing arithmetic or arguing legitimacy. Note also that none of the published seat tables in the window carried a sample size or field dates.