American forces leave Kurdistan this week; the militia deadline that shared the date has moved to 2027

The House of Commons Library research briefing CBP-10829, “A new president and prime minister for Iraq,” published on or about 25 September and the freshest substantive document available to this desk, states that the US military drawdown first announced in 2024 “will complete in September 2026,” that the US presence has since been restricted to the Kurdistan Region, “though this will end in September,” and that the new bilateral agreement with the federal government is still being negotiated — with Washington expecting it to retain long-term security and counterterrorism cooperation. Al Jazeera reported on 12 August that Iraq called the 30 September deadline “final.” The federal half is already done: Iraq’s Defence Ministry announced on 17 January that the last US troops had left Ain al-Asad, with army chief of staff Lt. Gen. Abdul Amir Rashid Yarallah overseeing the transfer, and CENTCOM told CNN the Iraqi statement was “factual” — a confirmation of Baghdad’s announcement rather than an American one.

What ends on Tuesday is the residual presence in Erbil province. The most-repeated detail about it — that US air defences are being pulled from the Kurdistan Region — rests thinly. Iran International carried it in early September relaying Rudaw, which is KDP-affiliated; The New Arab ran a version in the same period. That is one partisan outlet at one remove, and nothing in the past 48 hours has firmed it up. The Commons briefing notes that analysts have raised concerns the withdrawal leaves the Kurdistan Region exposed, the region having been heavily targeted by Iran during the 2026 US/Israel–Iran conflict, and cites an unnamed KRG official suggesting cooperation with Washington will continue through training, logistics and local capacity building. Unnamed in the briefing itself, and therefore unnamed here.

The second 30 September deadline has already gone. The same Commons briefing states that Iraq’s aim to disarm the Popular Mobilisation Forces or integrate them into the state armed forces “initially had a deadline of September 2026 but has been moved to June 2027.” CFR’s tracker, attributing to the New York Times, paraphrases Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi as saying Baghdad now aims to finish by 30 June 2027 and describing a ninety-day pause in attacks as the first step. We could not establish when that pause began, whether it is still running, or whether any party has declared it broken. For scale of the problem it addresses: the Congressional Research Service notes that since February 2026, Iran-backed Shia Iraqi armed groups have carried out hundreds of attacks on US forces and on civilian targets in the Kurdistan Region and neighbouring countries.

Assessment: The two deadlines were set for the same day and only one of them held, which tells you which one Baghdad actually controls. Dropping the disarmament target to June 2027 buys al-Zaidi the thing an incomplete cabinet cannot: time to avoid deciding. The ninety-day pause is the number to chase, not the 2027 date — if it began around the slippage it expires about now, and its quiet lapse would be the story that the calendar milestone is not. Distrust two things this week: the air-defence claim, which is KDP-sourced at one remove, and any account of the withdrawal that treats an announced departure as a verified one. January’s precedent was Baghdad announcing and CENTCOM confirming.