Egypt’s balance of payments turns positive on inflows, not on what it sells

The Central Bank of Egypt published its balance of payments report for the fiscal year ended 30 June 2026 on Monday 12 October, carried the same afternoon by Masrawy (Manal El-Masry) and Amwal Al Ghad (Mohamed Hamdy). The headline figures: an overall surplus of about $2.8bn, a current account deficit of about $22.5bn, and a net inflow on the capital and financial account of about $23.2bn. Egypt repaid $7.1bn in medium- and long-term loan and facility instalments over the same twelve months. Suez transit dues came in at about $4.4bn, up 21.6% from roughly $3.6bn, on net transiting tonnage of 590.8m tons (+22.4%) and some 13,600 vessels (+9.8%). Remittances from Egyptians abroad hit a record $47.3bn, up 29.6% year on year, per CBE figures carried by the State Information Service.

The reserve series moves in the same direction and tells the same story more quietly. Net international reserves stood at $57.3482bn at end-September, up $133.7m on August’s $57.2145bn — the smallest monthly move in the fragment of the series available — against a nine-month rise of $5.896bn from $51.452bn in December 2025, per Daily News Egypt. Banking-sector net foreign assets reached $31.2bn in August, the highest since January 2020, split $12.4bn commercial banks and $18.8bn central bank. Banking analyst Mohamed Abdel Aal, quoted by the same outlet, called September the 49th consecutive month of reserve increases and argued the external position now rests on a broader set of indicators than the reserve level alone. That is his framing, not a finding of the data.

What the release as summarised does not disclose is the composition of the $23.2bn: how much is foreign direct investment, how much portfolio money, how much rolled-over Gulf deposits. One unresolved number sits directly on that line. The New Arab — Qatari-owned, editorially hostile to the Egyptian government — reported on 22 September, under Adel Sabry’s byline and citing unnamed “economic sources,” that Cairo was in talks with Riyadh to renew or convert a $5.434bn Saudi deposit at the CBE maturing this month. The on-the-record element is financing expert Wael al-Nahhas, who said the deposit was originally $5.3bn and carries a dollar return lifting its maturity value. Neither the 7 October reserves release nor Monday’s balance of payments report confirms or denies its status.

Assessment: Read the two numbers together and the arithmetic is blunt: the current account bled $22.5bn and the surplus is $2.8bn, so roughly nine dollars in ten of the inflow went to covering the gap rather than building a buffer. That is a solvency arrangement, not an export recovery, and it is only as durable as the willingness of Gulf depositors and portfolio investors to stay. The September reserve move of $133.7m — against a nine-month build of $5.9bn — is the tell worth tracking monthly. Distrust any framing, including Abdel Aal’s, that treats 49 straight months of reserve growth as evidence of earned resilience. The breakdown of the $23.2bn is in the full CBE PDF; until someone publishes it, the shape of Egypt’s external position is an assertion.