Israel’s polls disagree by eighteen seats with less than a fortnight to voting day
Channel 13 has the two blocs at 51–50, the Times of Israel has the opposition up 54–49, and Channel 14’s pollster has the coalition at 63. The spread is the story.
The Channel 13 weekly poll published on 15 October, conducted by Madad’s Shmuel Rosner and Noah Slepkov among 1,018 respondents with a 3.1% margin of error, put the Netanyahu bloc on 51 seats and the Gadi Eisenkot-led opposition bloc on 50 — both short of 61, with unaligned parties (Joint List, Ra’am, Hendel–Zelekha) holding 19 seats, about 15% of the Knesset. That is a four-seat fall for the coalition in a week: the same poll on 8 October had it 55–50. The breakdown gives Yashar 20, Likud 18, B’Yachad 12, Yisrael Beytenu and the Democrats and Joint List 9 each, Otzma Yehudit and United Torah Judaism 8, Shas 7, Religious Zionism 6, Ra’am 6, and Ofer Winter’s People of Israel and Hendel–Zelekha 4 apiece. The Times of Israel/Zman Yisrael poll the same day had the Jewish-led opposition bloc at 54 and Netanyahu’s at 49.
Jewish Insider’s Lahav Harkov counted eight polls in the week to 11 October: the pro-Netanyahu bloc led in four and tied in two. The two highest coalition numbers both trace to one man — a Channel 14 poll conducted by Shlomo Filber, a former Netanyahu adviser, giving the bloc 63 to 45, and an i24NEWS poll by Direct Polls, a firm Filber was formerly a partner in, giving 60–48 — against the Times of Israel’s 55–51 and Channel 12’s 54–49 for the opposition. Winter’s party is the hinge: it clears the 3.25% threshold in Channel 13’s poll and falls below it in the Times of Israel’s, which is why Likud and its allies are running what ToI calls an aggressive campaign to push small right-wing lists out of the race. Netanyahu meanwhile again ruled out giving Itamar Ben Gvir either the defence or police portfolio.
Assessment: Anyone citing “the polls” in Israel this week is choosing a pollster. An eighteen-seat spread between the Filber and ToI readings is not sampling noise; it is two different pictures of the electorate sold to two different audiences, and the coalition-friendly end of the range comes disproportionately from one professional lineage. What is consistent across houses matters more: neither bloc reaching 61, Otzma Yehudit around eight to nine seats, and the right’s margin resting on whether a four-seat party crosses the threshold. Ruling Ben Gvir out of two ministries is a bid for the centre made against a partner Netanyahu cannot govern without — a cost he is only worth paying if the internal numbers look like Channel 13’s, not Channel 14’s.