IMF mission works Egypt’s last review while the Fund declines to promise a successor programme

Asharq Business, Bloomberg’s Arabic service, reported that an IMF mission arrived in Cairo on Sunday 25 October to begin the eighth and final review of the EFF and the final review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility, citing three people familiar with the matter who spoke on condition of anonymity. EnterpriseAM, writing on 26 October, said the mission landed earlier than expected. The arrival is not confirmed on the record by the Fund, the Finance Ministry or the Central Bank, and Zawia3, in a piece dated 28 October, says talks “will begin next Sunday” — 1 November. The numbering also does not reconcile cleanly: the Executive Board approved what Ahram Online describes as the combined fifth and sixth EFF reviews and the first RSF review on 8 October, unlocking about US$2.27bn. Julie Kozack, the Fund’s communications director, said on 1 October that completion in the fourth quarter would unlock US$2.3bn.

What is firmer is the clock and the arithmetic. The EFF was extended to 15 December 2026, taking its duration to 48 months, an extension granted because earlier reviews ran late, according to IMF Country Report No. 26/224. EnterpriseAM, citing three government sources, reports divestments and tax collection running in the government’s favour, with energy subsidies and a stalled tax on free zones holding it back. The Fund’s own tables put revenues at 9.9% of GDP in FY2025/26 against expenditures of 15.8%, with public debt projected at 91.1% of GDP and gross financing needs peaking near 42% of GDP. Asked in Bangkok on 15 October what follows, Jihad Azour, who runs the Fund’s Middle East department, told Bloomberg that once the review concludes “we can discuss with the authorities what are their plans, what are their priorities, and if they want another program or not.”

Assessment: Azour’s sentence is the story. A successor arrangement is being treated as an open question by the lender, not as a formality, and that is a different negotiating posture from the one Cairo has grown used to since 2022. The financing-needs figure explains why: at roughly 42% of GDP, Egypt has to roll over an amount that only works if the Gulf deposits stay put and the T-bill carry trade stays attractive. Note also what is missing — no on-the-record confirmation that the mission is even in the building. When a government wants a review publicised it usually publicises it.